One of the more useful holdem tools, the post-flop “probe” bet, is even more useful in four-card high Omaha. This after-the-flop probe bet is usually made on a not-so-good medium hand that does not have much chance to improve. Generally a probe bet is made to find out if anyone is good enough to raise (ie. they have either good cards or good money). And if someone does raise, you will fold immediately, since by definition, you are not likely to improve, and you do not want to get involved with calling the double size bets after fourth and fifth streets.

Otherwise put, this probe bet is a combination play that actually wins money either if the opponents all fold, in which case it is in effect like the outright bluff to steal the antes, or it wins money if you get callers and you hang on to win the pot. You also get some value from the extra information obtained when someone raises you, thus allowing you to fold with more accuracy. And there is also a slight equity because your bet might deter someone else from betting (which you would drop) and stealing the pot. The sum of these possibilities makes the single probe bet a winning action.

In Omaha, I have had good results betting some of the classic “eat” hands in late position. Here are three specific examples of hands that any good Omaha player routinely folds when faced with betting, but, with these same hands, you might make these agressive probe bets in last or near last position: 1) the jack high flush, 2) the middle straight (or even, shudder, the low “ignorant” straight), and finally, 3) the two low pair (which might improve but so might your opponents).

One way of communicating how scary these hands are is by asking you which of the following hands would you least rather find yourself driving:

1) JS, 8S, 7D, 6C with a flop 9S, 4S, 2S the “jack high flush”
2) JS, 7H, 6D, 5C with a flop 10S, 9H, 8D the “middle straight”
3) JS, 7H, 6D, 5C with a flop KS, 7D, 5H the “two low pair”

If you run these exact hands on Mike Caro’s Poker Probe program against six other players (who always see all five board cards), the jack high flush wins about thirty seven percent of the time, the ten high straight wins about twenty three percent of the time, and the two low pair (including the straight prospect!) only wins about fourteen percent of the time, ie. even less than a random hand which normally wins one seventh or 14.29%. In real life, however, all of the above hands will win more often when the betting is checked around to you, since better hands might have bet.

Note that the above example hands are the kind with which we often see bad players losing big dollars calling to the end; hence, good players routinely fold these hands when faced with betting. But if the betting is checked around to you, it is a whole different ball game! In this situation your chances of stealing the antes add to the tangible but normally inadequate winning potential of these hands such that your total overall chances are substantially improved by betting. Since part of the financial justification for this probe bet is based on the prospect of stealing the antes, position is obviously quite important. In the later seats, ante grabbing is more successful, and you are likely to get the next round checked around to you.

In last or near last position it is reasonably “correct” to bet and try to steal the antes with almost ANY hand. If the L/T (looseness tightness coefficient) of the game is less than five (where nine is super loose and one is super tight; tens and zeros exist only in theory), then a bet on any hand IS justified by the equity of everyone folding. For example, in a five ten dollar game where four other players also paid five dollars to see the flop, if those other four players will all fold a five dollar bet, one time out of six or more frequently, then betting with ANY hand breaks even or better in the long run.

When there are callers, you follow through by carefully reading just HOW the opponents call and try to work out what is happening. If you think your callers are just hanging on AND no dangerous card turns on fourth street (ie. you detect weakness or unmade “comes”), you have the option of further driving. The odds of prevailing over callers are directly proportional to the number of bricks available for the last card. With this kind of hand you virtually never bet after the last card! Some timid soul may be just calling on a better hand than yours. You simply check and perhaps “block-the-plate” (call a likely bluff). Generally, when you fail to steal the antes and a dangerous fourth street card turns, you usually check, go passive, and seriously consider folding any further bets.

Are these probe bets volitile or disaster prone? Quite the contrary! Keep in mind that these “probe” bets are actually a disciplined attempt to “test the waters” to see if anyone is lurking with a good enough hand to raise, which you would quickly drop. At the time you make the probe bet you are a favorite. But once you get one or more callers your odds go down, somewhat similar to how your odds go down after the first roll at craps. Since you have a medium bad hand that usually doesn’t improve, you must be realistic and avoid getting yourself sucked in. You intend to make a conservative and disciplined fold if raised or if called and later bet into (unless your odds of winning and the dollars in the pot clearly dictate otherwise - but in that case you were probably not making a “probe” bet). Do not confuse the probe bet with a good-draw (six or more winning outs) drive bet which has different objectives.

Thus, a corollary principle to all of the above is that if you have a low-odds winning draw hand (eg. a “gut-nut” straight) that would like to stick around to see another card(s), you should NOT (normally) take this opportunity to probe because first, your best case scenarios do NOT want to fold competition, and second, you would be opening yourself to the check raise possibility which you would then want to call.