In two previous articles we discussed steps one and two of what I refer to as the three-step basic strategy of four-card Omaha. Although I had not originally intended to write an article about “step three”, because step three is mostly “just poker”, I have received some correspondence on the subject and there is at least one aspect that deserves specific mention, namely the common mistake of over raising on fourth street. For your convenience the three steps of the basic strategy of Omaha are:

Step One is to evaluate your hand before the flop. . . [see page 1]

Step Two, upon seeing the flop, is to decide whether or not to get further involved. . .

Step Three is to decide whether you still belong in the pot for the double-sized bets after fourth street and fifth street (last card). Since your possibilities are fairly well clarified by the fourth card, this decision to compete with the big money should be somewhat easier than the complex delicacies of step two. How you play your cards after fourth and fifth streets depends mainly upon your basic poker skills. And, as in most other forms of poker, here you have to be good at judging how your hand will fare against what the opponents are likely to have.

One of the biggest differences between Omaha and Holdem is the increased risk of losing on the infamous last card - simply because four card hands are more likely to contain the key dangerous holdings than two card hands. In Omaha when you have the “nuts” hand (that is the highest hand possible with a given set of board cards) after fourth street, you usually live in fear of certain last cards which would create the possibility of better hands than yours. Thus, the natural order of things going into the last card in Omaha is that the “chasers” are all hoping for certain cards to complete their hands and the leader(s) is praying for a “brick”. In poker parlance a “brick” is a card which does not appear to help anyone, that is, does not pair the board, does not complete flushes, and does not create (higher) straights.

Note that after fourth street very few hands are totally secure. Even four-of-a-kind (quads) can be jeopardized, either by any higher card on the board (which creates the possibility of higher quads if paired on the last card) or if the board has two proximate suited cards (which creates the possibility of a straight flush if a third such card appears on fifth street). For example, suppose that after fourth street you happen to have four fives and that two of the four board cards are the three and five of diamonds. Of the forty-four outstanding cards (fifty-two minus

your four and the board’s four) there are thirty nine “bricks” and five dangerous cards (namely the seven, six, four, deuce and ace of diamonds) that would create the possibility of a straight flush. Also, if there are any single cards on the board of higher denomination than your fives, for example an eight, a second eight on fifth street would also be a “non-brick”, since someone might have four eights. Whereas any exact two-card holding is unlikely (about nineteen-to-one against even in the most likely cases), in four-card Omaha anything can happen.

With forty-four cards remaining the odds of two SPECIFIC cards being in ONE four-card hand are about .634%. Thus, if you were playing against eight opponents, all of whom were still in the pot after fourth street, it would then be about eight times more likely that any two specific cards would be held by one of the eight players, or about five percent. The better the two specific cards happen to be (something like two kings or the king and queen of spades), the more likely that the holder would be seeing the (favorable) flop and would be still around after fourth street. Thus in these most likely cases the odds are around nineteen-to-one against. But if the two specific cards happen to be something like the two and three of diamonds, the odds of two such specific cards being out against you would be much less.

One very typical situation in Omaha occurs when you are driving the “nut straight” after fourth street (that is, a straight that is the highest possible hand using the four board cards), and the board has no pairs but does have two cards of the same suit. If the feared last card is a third card of that suit, or if the board pairs, you will often choose to fold your no-longer-nut straight to the expected last round bet(s). It would certainly be foolish for you to bet.

For example suppose your hand is an eight, six, five and four, and the four board cards are a king, nine, seven and five, with two spades. Thus, at this point after fourth street, you have a nine high straight which is the best possible hand given these four board cards. Although it is always right to drive these hands (that is, make the first bet after fourth street), in order to drive out some of the competition, few players realize how tenuous these hands really are. In the above example there are only about eleven or twelve bricks (depending which two of the four board cards are the spades). All last cards from kings down to fives are
dangerous! The only last cards that are “bricks” are aces, deuces, threes or fours, but definitely not in spades! Note also how the presence of the innocuous king on the board works with the nine to make all queens, jacks and tens into dangerous cards.

The main lesson to be learned here is that although it is correct to make the first bet after fourth street with these hands, in order to drive out some of the shakier competition, it is often wrong to raise! If you can raise (or reraise) directly before there have been intervening callers, it is definitely correct to raise because the increased pressure might drive out some lesser flush or two pair competition. But if you are in last position, and there have been several

intervening callers, a raise (even with a reraise by the first bettor) is unlikely to drop anyone who has already called the first fourth-round bet (once stuck, they will usually see it through). Thus, in this type of situation, the main principle is that you raise only if you think that you might drop some competition. You do not raise just to get more money into the pot! Your equity in this type of situation is often less than that of the chasers! If the lead bettor (the one you would be raising) has the same holding as you, your money odds REALLY plunge.

Thus, the three main variables in this type of fourth street situation are how many bricks exist, how many of the dangerous holdings are likely to be lurking, and how likely is it that you will split the pot if you manage to hang on and win. Although you can count bricks, the last two variables require good poker table judgment. Based on these evaluations, you could estimate your pot odds and calculate whether or not a raise is good business. When in doubt, the simple rule stated above is usually correct, namely, do not raise (when only a dozen or less cards are bricks) unless you judge that the raise is very likely to drop some competition.